Economics and Finance

Fifa World Cup 2026 and the Gini Coefficient

Authors: Anindya Kumar Biswas
Comments: 12 Pages.

In this paper, we study the Fifa World Cup 2026 matches up to the Final. In the Group Stage, for the decided matches, the probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win was 28/52. In the next stages up to final i.e. in the Round of Thirty Two stage, the Round of Sixteen stage etc, the probability for a team with lower relative Gini coefficient to win were 6/15, 6/8, 1/4, 0/2, 0/1, 1/1 respectively. In the Group Stage, the probability to win with lower HDI was 19/52 i.e. less than half. In the Round of Thirty Two stage, theprobability to win with lower HDI was 6/16.In the Round of Sixteen stage, the probability to win with lower HDI was 1/8. In the Quarter Final stage, the probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win was 3/4 i.e. swung to the right. In the Semi Final stage, the probability for a team with lower relative HDI to win was 2/2. In the Third Place Play-off, the team with higher relative HDI won i.e. the probability swung to the left. In the Final, the team with lower relative Gini coefficient, higher HDI won. The overall probability to win with lower relative Gini coefficient was 42/53 i.e. 0.506 i.e. more than half. In the previous World Cups 2022, 2018, 2014, the overall probability to win with lower relative Gini coefficient were 0.556, 0.627, 0.519 respectively.
Category: Economics and Finance